Eight Teams, Four Chances: NBL1 South Elimination Finals Arrive

The new top-10 finals format begins with two women’s and two men’s elimination finals. Each winner advances to next week’s Qualifying Finals, while each losing team’s season comes to an end.

Across the four matchups, the regular-season results provide useful reference points without telling the complete story. Melbourne has undergone significant personnel changes since losing to Mt Gambier in Round 1. Kilsyth returns to the venue where it defeated Dandenong in May. Diamond Valley owns a road victory over Ballarat, while Casey and Sandringham were separated by one point in their only meeting.

The weekend also follows the presentation of the NBL1 South Awards. Five players taking part were selected in the All-NBL1 South First or Second Teams, while several others were finalists for major individual honours.

Melbourne enters the postseason as the 2026 Club of the Year, while Kilsyth received the Points off the Bench Award. Those honours provide further recognition of two clubs whose depth will be tested under elimination pressure.

After 22 regular-season games, every team has an established body of work. From here, one performance determines what comes next.

Women – Elimination Final 1
7th Melbourne Tigers (13-9) vs 10th Mt Gambier Pioneers (12-10)

Saturday 25 July | 6:30pm AEST
Melbourne Sports & Aquatic Centre

The only regular-season meeting between Melbourne and Mt Gambier came in Round 1, when the Pioneers travelled to Melbourne Sports & Aquatic Centre and recorded a 95-77 victory.

It remains an important result, particularly because it came at the venue hosting Saturday’s elimination final. However, the Melbourne team preparing for the rematch is substantially different from the one Mt Gambier faced in March.

The Tigers strengthened their rotation through the additions of guard Shuyu Yang (18.9 PPG, 43.9 percent 3P) and forward Mingling Chen (14.4 PPG). Both were subsequently named among the finalists considered for the All-NBL1 South teams.

Yang gives Melbourne an experienced ball-handler and one of the competition’s leading perimeter threats. Her ability to score from outside can stretch the defence, while Chen provides another reliable option in the frontcourt.

Their arrival helped alter the direction of Melbourne’s season. After losing its opening four games, the team won its first three following the arrival of Yang and Chen, beginning a recovery that eventually carried the Tigers to a 13-9 record and home court for the elimination final.

Isabella Brancatisano (13.0 PPG) adds another layer to the matchup against her former club. Brancatisano played for Mt Gambier during the 2025 season before joining Melbourne and was named a Defensive Player of the Year finalist in 2026.

The Pioneers have also changed since the opening weekend. Mt Gambier began the season working through injuries and gradually settling its preferred rotation, but still accumulated 12 wins and secured a place in the postseason.

Five Pioneers enter the finals averaging at least 13 points per game.

Ti’lan Boler (15.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.95 3PM) leads Mt Gambier in scoring and provides a consistent perimeter threat. Her ability to create points from outside or in transition will be important against Melbourne’s expanded guard rotation.

Inside, Kelsey Rees (14.7 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 3.3 APG) leads the Pioneers in rebounding and blocks while making a team-high 3.5 free throws per game. Her matchup with Chen will be significant as both teams attempt to establish their frontcourt offence.

Lara Edmanson (14.6 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 49.6 per cent FG) gives Mt Gambier another major presence around the basket. Rees and Edmanson combine for almost 20 rebounds per game, making Melbourne’s work on the defensive glass one of the contest’s clearest areas of importance.

The Pioneers’ offence is organised by Carla Pitman (13.2 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 5.4 APG, 2.5 SPG). Pitman was a Youth Player of the Year finalist and leads Mt Gambier in assists and steals, giving her an influential role at both ends of the floor.

Grace Champion (13.1 PPG, 2.32 3PM, 1.5 SPG) completes Mt Gambier’s leading group and tops the team in three-pointers made. The Pioneers can consequently generate offence in several ways, from Boler and Champion on the perimeter to Rees and Edmanson inside, with Pitman connecting the two areas.

Matt Sutton’s work in guiding Mt Gambier through its injury-affected start and into the top 10 earned him recognition as a Coach of the Year finalist.

The Pioneers have already demonstrated that they can win at Melbourne Sports & Aquatic Centre. The Tigers now have the opportunity to show how much their midseason additions changed the team that lost there in Round 1.

Women – Elimination Final 2
5th Diamond Valley Eagles (14-8) vs 8th Ballarat Miners (12-10)

Saturday 25 July | 7:30pm AEST
Diamond Valley Sports & Fitness Centre

Diamond Valley opened its season with an 84-74 road victory over Ballarat at Selkirk Stadium. It was the teams’ only meeting of the regular season.

The Eagles went on to finish 14-8 and earn home court for the elimination final, while Ballarat secured eighth position with a 12-10 record.

Diamond Valley’s season was led by Abbey Ellis (23.2 PPG), whose production earned her selection in the All-NBL1 South First Team. Ellis’ scoring places sustained pressure on opposing defences, but the Eagles have several other players capable of influencing the contest.

Alex Sharp (14.4 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 2.2 SPG) was named a Defensive Player of the Year finalist. Her rebounding, defensive versatility and ability to generate turnovers give Diamond Valley an important presence at both ends of the floor.

The Eagles can also turn to Erin Riley, Shannon Dufficy and Isis Beh, providing a combination of shooting, size and defensive flexibility around Ellis and Sharp. Dee Butler was recognised as a Coach of the Year finalist after guiding the group through its 14-win campaign.

Ballarat enters with one of the most statistically balanced leading groups among the elimination finalists.

Constance Hobby (18.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG) leads the Miners in scoring and makes a team-high 3.8 free throws per game. Her ability to score while also contributing on the boards will be central to Ballarat’s efforts to test Diamond Valley inside.

Abbey Wehrung (17.1 PPG, 5.6 APG, 4.6 RPG) was selected in the All-NBL1 South Second Team. Wehrung leads Ballarat in assists and makes 2.9 three-pointers per game, giving the Miners an important creator and perimeter scorer.

Malia Fisher (13.5 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 1.8 SPG) leads Ballarat in rebounds, blocks and steals. Her activity across those categories will be especially valuable against an Eagles team capable of creating pressure in several areas of the floor.

Casey Samuels (14.1 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.4 APG) provides another playmaking option while making 2.8 three-pointers per contest. Elissa Brett (13.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 3.4 APG) adds further scoring and averages 2.3 made three-pointers.

Ballarat’s five leading players all average at least 13 points. Four collect more than five rebounds per game, while Wehrung, Samuels and Brett each make more than two three-pointers.

That balance means the Miners do not need to rely on one player to carry their offence against Diamond Valley’s defence. They can create through Wehrung and Samuels, attack inside through Hobby and Fisher, and generate perimeter scoring from several positions.

Diamond Valley won the opening meeting by 10 points on Ballarat’s floor, giving the Eagles the only direct advantage from the regular-season series. Both teams, however, have had almost four months to develop since that game.

For Diamond Valley, the opportunity is to convert its top-five finish and home-court advantage into postseason progress. Ballarat’s task is to use its balanced scoring, shooting and rebounding to produce a response to the team that defeated it in Round 1.

Men – Elimination Final 1
7th Dandenong Rangers (12-10) vs 10th Kilsyth Cobras (12-10)

Saturday 25 July | 7:00pm AEST
Dandenong Basketball Stadium

Dandenong and Kilsyth completed the regular season with identical 12-10 records, leaving percentage to decide home-court advantage for Saturday night’s elimination final.

Their only meeting came at Dandenong Basketball Stadium in Round 6, when Kilsyth secured a 96-81 road victory.

Dandenong’s offence is led by one of the most productive pairings in the conference.

Harry Froling (24.7 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 4.3 APG) earned All-NBL1 South First Team selection after finishing among the league’s leading scorers. His passing also gives Dandenong the ability to initiate offence through the frontcourt rather than relying exclusively on its guards.

Alongside him, Joe Palmer (22.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 2.6 APG) was selected in the All-NBL1 South Second Team. Palmer provides another high-volume scorer and strong rebounder, forcing opponents to account for two Rangers averaging more than 22 points per game.

Sam Davidson (16.0 PPG) gives Dandenong a third established scorer, while Ryan Rapp (8.8 PPG, 2.4 APG) has an important role in organising the offence around the Rangers’ leading pair.

Kilsyth’s roster has developed since its Round 6 victory through the addition of Angus Glover (20.3 PPG). The recent Australian Boomer brings international experience, physical perimeter defence and another proven scorer into the Cobras’ backcourt.

Glover leads a group that also includes Chris Joseph Payton Jr (15.6 PPG). Their production gives Kilsyth multiple scoring threats capable of stretching Dandenong’s defence throughout the contest.

Adrian Tomada (5.3 APG) is the Cobras’ leading facilitator and will be central to their efforts to control the pace. His ability to create shots for Glover and Payton will be particularly important when Dandenong applies pressure away from the ball.

Jamie Ahale offers another perimeter option within a Kilsyth rotation recognised with the league’s Points off the Bench Award. That depth could become significant if foul trouble or the physical demands of the matchup force either team away from its preferred combinations.

The first meeting gives Kilsyth a clear reference point. The Cobras scored 96 points and won by 15 at the same venue to which they return for the elimination final.

Dandenong, however, enters with two All-NBL1 South selections and home court after finishing above Kilsyth on percentage. The Rangers’ challenge is to translate that individual production into a different result from the one recorded in May.

With identical records and only one previous meeting, Saturday provides the definitive contest between the two teams

Men – Elimination Final 2
8th Sandringham Sabres (12-10) vs 9th Casey Cavaliers (12-10)

Sunday 26 July | 2:30pm AEST
Southern Basketball Stadium

Sandringham and Casey also completed the regular season with matching 12-10 records, with percentage giving the Sabres home court for the final game of elimination weekend.

Their only meeting provided little separation. Casey defeated Sandringham 93-92 at Casey Stadium in Round 6, holding on for a one-point victory.

Sandringham enters the rematch with one of the defining individual performances of the season still fresh in the memory.

Kyle Adnam (22.0 PPG, 3.9 APG) scored 70 points against Northern Force in the final round, setting a new NBL1 single-game scoring record. It was a historic performance and an immediate reminder of the pressure Adnam can apply when he establishes an offensive rhythm.

The Sabres are not solely dependent on their veteran guard.

Malith Machar (19.8 PPG, 4.3 RPG) earned All-NBL1 South Second Team selection, giving Sandringham another high-level scorer capable of attacking from the perimeter or using his length closer to the basket.

Kyle Bowen (15.6 PPG) supplies another scoring option alongside his work on the boards and around the rim.

Elliot Brown (11.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG) was recognised as a Youth Player of the Year finalist, illustrating the combination of established talent and emerging production available to the Sabres.

Casey presents a different set of physical challenges.

Preston Bungei (14.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.0 BPG) was named a Defensive Player of the Year finalist and will be central to the Cavaliers’ plans for Sandringham’s scorers. His ability to defend across positions provides Casey with options when matching up with Machar and the Sabres’ frontcourt.

The Cavaliers can also turn to Jesse Ghee (16.2 PPG) and Ibrahima Diallo (16.0 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 2.1 BPG). Ghee supplies another scoring threat, while Diallo’s rebounding and shot-blocking make him one of the most important interior players in the matchup.

Diallo’s contest with Bowen around the basket could have a significant bearing on second-chance points and the ability of each team’s guards to attack the paint.

Lual Diing and Patrick Ryan add further size and versatility to a Casey team that has already demonstrated it can defeat the Sabres. That victory was achieved by one possession, leaving little margin between the teams across their only 40 minutes against each other.

Sandringham enters at home with Adnam coming off his record-setting performance and Machar carrying Second Team recognition. Casey arrives with the confidence of the earlier victory and a frontcourt capable of influencing the game through defence and rebounding.

After 22 games, the clubs could not be separated by record. Their first meeting was decided by one point. The second will determine which season continues.

The regular season created these matchups, but it offers no protection once the elimination finals begin.

Melbourne’s rebuilt rotation will be tested by the team that defeated it in Round 1. Dandenong and Kilsyth must separate themselves after finishing with identical records. Diamond Valley will attempt to convert a top-five campaign into a finals victory, while Ballarat searches for a road response. Sandringham and Casey will resume a contest previously decided by a single point.

The higher seeds have earned the advantage of playing at home, but the earlier results provide little room for comfort. Mt Gambier and Kilsyth have already won at the venues to which they return this weekend, Ballarat has five double-figure scorers available for its trip to Diamond Valley, and Casey owns a regular-season victory over Sandringham.

By Sunday evening, four clubs will have advanced to the Qualifying Finals. For the other four, a season shaped across four months will end in a single weekend.

The 2026 NBL1 South championship race starts here.